By: Mike Wagenman (@mjwags23)
The NBA lottery was last night, and the Cavaliers reeled in even more rewards for the departure of LeBron James. The Bobcats got the short end of the stick, yet again. And the Wizards leapt into the top three.
There are so many thoughts swirling in my head right now, because this draft can go so many different ways. Like the NFL Draft last month, there is no clear-cut franchise player in this draft. There is no sure thing. Every player has at least one glaring hole in his game.
I am usually pretty spot-on when I predict which players will pan out in the NBA and which will not, but my accuracy is not as deadly when I predict my mock drafts.
That all being said, here is part one (the lottery teams) of the 2013 NBA Mock Draft, no trades included:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers – Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky: Before I even begin to talk about Noel, let me first take you through my thought process.
I oh so badly want to pencil in somebody else here, namely Otto Porter. Anthony Bennett plays Tristan Thompson’s position, Ben McLemore plays Dion Waiters’ position and Porter is good at everything but great at nothing.
I also need to mention that I think Cleveland will be shopping this pick. I doubt there will be any attractive offers, but it doesn’t hurt to look. Anyway, Noel will almost certainly be the selection here, even though he won’t be able to play until Christmas. Picking Noel allows Thompson to be solely a power forward, allows Tyler Zeller to come off the bench and allows the Cavs to have some flexibility with Anderson Varejao. They can trade him to a contender for what will most likely be a favorable return package, or they can keep him to help Noel develop and then let him walk.
Noel’s mid-season return will keep some attention on the Cavs, and will produce a huge revenue boost around Christmas (his anticipated return) while teams like Miami and the Lakers are collecting their usual heaps of revenue. On the court, Noel has a lot to work on and his ACL needs to heal quickly. He has a weak offensive game, he cannot shoot, and he is way too skinny. He is going to get bullied by the majority of NBA centers if he does not bulk up. On the flip side, he is a good defender when strength does not come into play, and he is a very instinctive shot blocker.
Cleveland could begin the 2014-15 season with Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters, Tristan Thompson and Nerlens Noel. Nice.
2. Orlando Magic – Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas: In my opinion, McLemore is the best player in the draft. He is quick, he can shoot and he can drive to the rim. He really needs to work on creating his own shot. He really really needs to work on shooting off the dribble. McLemore could get away with that in college, but in the NBA, he is rarely going to be able to set himself for an open shot.
Orlando better hope Noel goes to Cleveland, because their big man tandem of Nikola Vucevic and Andrew Nicholson is going to improve and be formidable for years to come.
3. Washington Wizards – Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown: A lot of people are low on Porter because his well-rounded but not outstanding skill set will provide nothing more than a third-option scorer in the long term. I am high on Porter. I am a Syracuse fan, so I watched a ton of Big East (or whatever the hell it’s called now) basketball. Porter is a natural.
The fact the Porter is coming from a college that has seen many of its recent stars flourish in the NBA (Hibbert, Monroe, Green) is a plus. The fact that he won’t have to be taught how to do anything, and just how to get better at things is another plus.
Let’s be real. There won’t be many takers for Nene or Emeka Okafor, so drafting a big man is pretty close to a waste, especially when Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker are decent backups. Washington needs another scorer to help John Wall and take eyes off Bradley Beal. Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster don’t cut it. Porter does.
4. Charlotte Bobcats – Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV: This is another guy I am high on. Bennett isn’t a Blake Griffin-like high flyer and he isn’t a Dwight Howard-like power dunker. He is a nice mix of the two styles, but certainly not the two players.
Bennett is a legit offensive threat, and boy would Kemba Walker like to have someone to help he and Gerald Henderson score the basketball and maybe set a pick or two. Byron Mullens was a nice development, and Bismack Biyombo couldn’t score if the rim doubled in size but he is a nice defensive presence. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Gerald Henderson and Kemba Walker are a solid, young backcourt. Adding Bennett’s ability on offense could open it up and allow MKG to develop further as well.
5. Phoenix Suns – Trey Burke, G, Michigan: Burke was sensational in college. I don’t think he will come close to that in the NBA, but he will be solid. A lot of experts have Phoenix selecting Victor Oladipo here, but I just don’t see it. Yes, the Suns need defense and athleticism, but they’ve always lacked on defense. The Suns are uptempo, and so is Burke. Oh yeah, he is pretty athletic also.
The Suns are decent up front with Luis Scola, Marcin Gortat and the Morris twins. If Michael Beasley ever gets his head on straight, he could help too. Goran Dragic and Kendall Marshall are facilitating point guards, and Burke is a combo guard who I see playing more of the two than the point in the NBA. Solid shooter, ball handler and pick-and-roll player.
6. New Orleans Pelicans – Shabazz Muhammad, SG/SF, UCLA: Muhammad could have the most undiscovered talent in this draft. UCLA’s awful season set him back a little bit, but Muhammad is a big, quick kid who knows how to play basketball.
The Pelicans are strong enough up front with Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson and Robin Lopez to pass on Rudy Gobert, Alex Len and Cody Zeller. Grieves Vasquez had a breakout year, Austin Rivers is still developing and Eric Gordon is still on the team. This team needs a wing scorer. Muhammad fits the bill. Also, if Muhammad proves he can carry the scoring load, the Pelicans can move the always-disgruntled Eric Gordon and expect to get a huge return.
I’m sick of hearing about his attitude problems. Every NBA player has attitude problems. Get over it.
7. Sacramento Kings – Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana: This pick gave me trouble, mainly because the Kings are a combination of the biggest mess of players ever. DeMarcus Cousins couldn’t get along with Mother Theresa and wouldn’t pass up a contested shot to pass to Michael Jordan, Tyreke Evans still can’t decide what his true position is, Jimmer Fredette has lost the Jimmer range thing, Jason Thompson is way overpaid, Marcus Thornton thinks he’s Kobe, they traded away Thomas Robinson for Patrick Patterson and finally, Toney Douglas gets playing time.
Now, on to the pick. The Kings can score. There is no denying that. The Kings couldn’t guard my high school’s team. Oladipo is a good perimeter defender, a hustler and can provide some offense when called upon. And you better believe he will get some open looks since he will be probably the eighth scoring option. The real question is, will anyone pass him the ball?
8. Detroit Pistons – Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse: MCW is another guy who I just don’t see transitioning particularly well to the NBA. Don’t tell Detroit that, though. Carter-Williams is a good passer, he is tall and long (6’6”) and he has above-average court vision.
On the down side, he panics too often, isn’t the best shooter from anywhere and is extremely lanky. He needs to bulk up a bit. The reason why I think the Pistons take a flier on MCW here is so they can move Brandon Knight off the ball a little bit. They like him as their point guard, sure, but the kid can flat out score. Carter-Williams can play the point on offense, but his height allows him to guard the two on defense.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves – C.J. McCollum, SG, Lehigh: This kid would have turned a ton of heads had he not been injured for most of the season. McCollum is this draft’s Damian Lillard, just not as incredible. He is a mid-major star, and he can flat out score the basketball. The Timberwolves are set up front with K-Love, Pekovic and Derrick Williams. Ricky Rubio and Alexy Shved are good in the backcourt. McCollum adds another scorer alongside Love, a guy who can play the shooting guard and a guy who will be the go-to scorer in a three-guard set.
10. Portland Trail Blazers – Alex Len, C, Maryland: Believe it or not, I think Len is going to be better long-term than Cody Zeller. He has a polished offensive game and is surprisingly nimble on the low block. He will surely take some pressure off LaMarcus Aldridge.
For some reason, J.J. Hickson gets dumped no matter where he plays for reasons beyond my comprehension. Since I predict that will happen again, Len is the pick.
11. Philadelphia 76ers – Cody Zeller, C, Indiana: You better believe if Zeller falls anywhere near here, the Sixers are gobbling him up. The days of painfully watching Spencer Hawes try to man the middle could be over for Philly.
I still cannot fathom why experts are mocking defensive centers here. The Sixers defense was not bad. Hawes can actually defend the rim a little bit. Picking a center at 11 will make it easier for the fans to watch Andrew Bynum leave, and will allow Lavoy Allen and even Hawes to play the four, and not the five. In turn, Thaddeus Young can play the three and unleash his explosiveness while being Jrue Holiday’s sidekick.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder – Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville: This really isn’t fair. Had Russell Westbrook not been injured, I firmly believe OKC was Miami’s biggest challenger. Not only will Russ be coming back, Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones will be a bit more developed. Now add the 12th overall pick. Yikes.
Dieng is a defensive monster and a shot blocker, which is perfect for the Thunder. They don’t need any more offense. At all. Kendrick Perkins was a rim protector, and that’s what Dieng will be. Dieng could also be used as ammo to launch a trade for a more proven center like Anderson Varejao.
13. Dallas Mavericks – Shane Larkin, PG, Miami: The Mavs are trading this pick. If they actually select someone at 13 and keep him, I’ll make our football writer Joe Siniscalchi wear around a mustache for a week. It’s not a secret. Mark Cuban wants Dwight Howard or Chris Paul.
But, since I said no trades, I’ll pick a point guard for Dallas. Larkin is a little guy at five-foot-11, but he has a huge heart. His effort is always on display, and he is lighting quick. The Mavs desperately need a productive point guard, and Larkin’s instinct and motor won’t let him fall anything short of that.
14. Utah Jazz – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia: The Jazz have about a thousand guards and a bulk of big men. Since there are no small forwards left, they take Caldwell-Pope. He can flat out score the basketball.
At six-foot-five, he will be playing the shooting guard position. But, with the plethora of big men at Utah’s disposal, the team can afford to play him or a player like Gordon Hayward at the small forward position for spurts.
Keep a look out for part two of my mock draft!
#GTD
Going The Distance 